September 10, 2001 Volume 4, Number 7
CONTENTS
* Introduction - Editor's Comments
* What's New at www.gdsourcing.ca
* Statistics Canada releases
* How clear is the Dot Com Crystal Ball?
* Small Business Stats Facts
RETURN
TO ARCHIVES
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INTRODUCTION - EDITOR'S COMMENTS
Hello,
We are back!
Welcome to this issue of the BR Newsletter.
I could say that we have been away on holidays for the last 2 months
but alas we have been in the midst of another nightmare move! As before,
anything that could go wrong did go wrong. I know a lot more about
sub-flooring now that I ever wished to know!
We have finally come to our senses at GDSourcing and hired another
full-time person. I would like to welcome Vanessa Fairbanks to the team.
She will help us to operate much more efficiently in the future. Watch for
some changes in the web site.
I would like to thank everyone who responded to our survey. The
response rate was much higher than we expected. The overwhelming majority
of respondents told us to keep things exactly they way they are! So we
have. For those few who thought the newsletter was too long, we have tried
to space out the page better so that you can easily view those sections of
interest.
On August 27, 2001, Statistics Canada has released the 1999 issue of
Spending Patterns in Canada. This publication presents statistical
highlights and key tables from the Survey of Household Spending.
This annual survey collects information about expenditures by
households and families in Canada on a wide variety of goods and services
and also about their dwelling characteristics, and ownership of household
equipment such as appliances, audio and video equipment, and vehicles.
The publication includes analytical text, summary level tables, a
detailed table, notes and definitions, and information about survey
methodology and data quality.
This publication is a standard reference book of any library or
business development centre that assists new entrepreneurs. The Statistics
Canada price is $45.00. GDSourcing is offering a 20% discount. If you
would like to order a copy for $36.00 simple fax us a company purchase
order or credit card information along with shipping details to
905-332-3740.
If you are looking for detailed statistics on a specific household
expenditure, we can also access unpublished data from this database.
Contact us by e-mail for more information ([email protected])
Thank you for your subscription.
I hope you find this issue helpful.
John White
Editor, BRN
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WHAT'S NEW AT www.gdsourcing.ca - POLLS, MORE
POLLS, TV PLUS
The following web sites were added to the GDSourcing index over the
summer GDSourcing is a reference point for free Canadian statistics
on-line.
DECIMA RESEARCH INC
http://www.decima.ca/
GDSourcing Site Summary:
https://www.gdsourcing.ca/works/Decima.htm
- results of public opinion polls
IKEA CANADA
http://www.ikea.ca/
GDSourcing Site Summary:
https://www.gdsourcing.ca/works/Ikea.htm
- furniture buying habits of Canadian consumers
LEGER MARKETING
http://www.legermarketing.com/
GDSourcing Site Summary:
https://www.gdsourcing.ca/works/Leger.htm
- results of public opinion polls
NIELSEN MEDIA RESEARCH
http://www.nielsenmedia.ca/
GDSourcing Site Summary:
https://www.gdsourcing.ca/works/Nielsenmedia.htm
- Television viewing in Canada
SCOTIABANK
http://www.scotiabank.com/
GDSourcing Site Summary:
https://www.gdsourcing.ca/works/Scotia.htm
- Economic reports from bank economists
- Small Business performance
TALENTMAP
http://www.talentmap.com/
GDSourcing Site Summary:
https://www.gdsourcing.ca/works/Talentmap.htm
- HR surveys of the High Tech sector
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STATISTICS CANADA RELEASES
The following statistics were release by Statistics Canada over the
last three weeks. We have listed those releases we feel are of the most
interest to Canadian entrepreneurs.
Very few of these statistics are available on-line. The URL listed is a
direct link to the press release associated with the data. It provides
contact and ordering information.
Many of these releases are related to unpublished databases however
where publications are available we have listed the Stats Can prices as
well as our own 20% discount price. If you would like to order a
publication send us an e-mail at [email protected]. Put "StatsCan" in
the subject line of your e-mail. Someone from our office will contact you
promptly.
NB: to access free publications listed follow the URL indicated.
AGRICULTURE
Agriculture value added account 1999 (revised)and 2000
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010628/d010628j.htm
Balance sheet of the agricultural sector at December 31 1999 (revised)and
2000
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010628/d010628k.htm
Farm business cash flows 1999 (revised)and 2000
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010628/d010628l.htm
Principal field crop areas 2001 (preliminary)
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010629/d010629b.htm
Farm operators' total income 1999
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010629/d010629d.htm
Potato production 2001 (preliminary)
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010720/d010720d.htm
Production and value of ranch-raised pelts 2000 (preliminary)
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010823/d010823f.htm
ARTS, CULTURE, ENTERTAINMENT & RECREATION
Private television broadcasters 2000
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010704/d010704c.htm
Private radio broadcasters 2000
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010710/d010710c.htm
BUSINESS SERVICES
Biotechnology Firm Survey 1997
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010627/d010627k.htm
International trade in services 2000
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010627/d010627h.htm
The evolving workplace: human resource practices 1999
(Free publication)
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010906/d010906d.htm
CONSTRUCTION
National Construction Industry Wage Rate Survey 2000
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010628/d010628d.htm
Private and public investment 2001 (revised intentions)
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010718/d010718b.htm
DEMOGRAPHICS
Family income 1999
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010810/d010810c.htm
Income of individuals 1999
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010815/d010815b.htm
Spending patterns in Canada 1999
Stats Can price $45.00 GDSourcing price - $36.00
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010827/b010827a.htm
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
Interprovincial productivity differences 1996-97
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010824/d010824a.htm
EDUCATION
Trends in the use of private education 1987/88 to 1998/99
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010704/d010704b.htm
University finances 1999/2000
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010730/d010730a.htm
University tuition fees 2001/02
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010827/d010827b.htm
Registered apprenticeship training 1999
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010815/d010815c.htm
Adult education participation in North America 1994-1998
(Free publication)
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010907/d010907a.htm
ENERGY
Electric power generation, transmission and distribution 1999
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010724/d010724e.htm
Energy consumption by manufacturing industries 2000 (preliminary)
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010731/d010731f.htm
Oil and gas extraction industry: Capital and operating expenditures
2000
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010823/d010823d.htm
Oil and gas extraction industry: Volume and value of marketable
production 2000
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010823/d010823e.htm
FINANCIAL SERVICES
Retirement savings through employer pension plans and registered
retirement savings plans 1999
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010717/d010717a.htm
Survey of Financial Security: Estimating the value of employer pension
plan benefits
(Free publication)
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010905/d010905c.htm
HEALTH & SOCIAL SERVICES
Family violence: focus on child abuse and children at risk 2001
(Free Publication)
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010628/d010628b.htm
Food insecurity in Canadian households 1998/99
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010815/d010815a.htm
National Survey of Giving, Volunteering and Participating 2000
(Free publication)
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010817/d010817c.htm
Mental health statistics 1998/99
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010712/d010712a.htm
Residential Care Facilities Survey 1998/99 (preliminary)
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010712/d010712c.htm
HOSPITALITY
Traveller accommodation services price indexes
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010810/d010810h.htm
INTERNET
Household Internet Use Survey 2000
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010726/d010726a.htm
Internet use among older Canadians 2000
(Free publications)
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010824/d010824b.htm
JUSTICE SERVICES
Adult correctional services 1999/2000
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010626/d010626b.htm
Graphical overview of the criminal justice indicators 1999/2000
Stats Can price - $26.00 GDSourcing price - $20.80
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010717/d010717c.htm
Crime statistics 2000
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010719/d010719b.htm
A profile of criminal victimization: results of the General Social
Survey 1999
(Free publication)
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010808/d010808c.htm
Legal aid 1999/2000
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010816/d010816b.htm
MANUFACTURING
Innovation in Canadian manufacturing: National estimates 1999
(Free Publication)
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010627/d010627i.htm
Annual Survey of Manufacturers 1999
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010720/d010720c.htm
Energy consumption by manufacturing industries 2000 (preliminary)
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010731/d010731f.htm
TRANSPORTATION & COMMUNICATIONS
Telecommunication services price indexes 1999
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010627/d010627j.htm
Cable and wireless program distribution 2000
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010802/d010802b.htm
Telecommunications services 1999
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010803/d010803b.htm
Survey of the taxi and limousine service industry 1999 (preliminary)
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010705/d010705f.htm
Airport activity statistics 2000 (preliminary)
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010720/d010720f.htm
The future for Canada-U.S. container port rivalries
(Free publication)
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010809/d010809b.htm
For-hire trucking, commodity origin and destination 2000 (preliminary)
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010827/d010827f.htm
Canadian Vehicle Survey Annual 2000
(free publication)
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010830/d010830d.htm
TRADE
Control and sale of alcoholic beverages 1999/2000
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010705/d010705a.htm
Annual wholesale trade data 1998
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/010718/d010718g.htm
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HOW CLEAR IS THE DOT COM CRYSTAL BALL?
When you are researching an Internet venture it is easy to get caught
up in the spectacular growth rates forecasted. Certainly the dot com melt
down has tempered some enthusiasm for the future of the Internet but
substantial positive growth is still anticipated by most analysts.
Forecast figures are helpful in fleshing out a business plan, but
entrepreneurs should not focus their entire business strategy on them.
Stop and consider the purpose and reliability of such figures. They should
enhance your business plan not define it!
We recently examined the accuracy of basic Internet forecasts by
leading communications firms. While this might seem a straightforward
project it was not always easy to find comparable data. Methodologies and
industry definitions (such as e-commerce) are often obfuscated so that
under scrutiny each firm is actually forecasting something slightly
different, and in some cases changing their own definitions from year to
year. It is hard to examine a moving target!
Moreover, if you are going to reflect on the accuracy of forecasts you
need to decide on a respected benchmark. The baseline for economic
forecasts (GDP, Unemployment Rate, and Inflation Rate) is Statistics
Canada. So it seemed logical given their sample size and plodding
methodology that their figures make an appropriate benchmark. The lack of
any scathing indictments of Statistics Canada's Internet data also
suggested a level of industry respect. Finally and perhaps most
importantly, Statistics Canada does not sell Internet forecasts, their
entire focus is on creating an accurate picture of the past.
The basic question most e-commerce businesses want answered is how many
Canadians have access to the Internet and how will it grow in the future?
In 1999 the following forecasts were made for the year 2000:
38% of the Canadian population or 11.6 million people will have access
to the Internet (Source: IDC, 1999) and 4 million households will be
on-line. (Source: The Yankee Group, 1999)
According to their latest figures, Statistics Canada reported that in
2000, 53% of the Canadian population over 15 (13 million) or 51% of
households (6 million) had access to the Internet.
When reality outperforms a forecast it can be a pleasant surprise for a
small business owner. (Unless of course they are unable to meet demand!).
Canadian Internet penetration rates have grown faster than expected by
many industry analysts.
Ideally however, you want your forecasts to match actual performance as
closely as possible. In early 1999 The Yankee Group forecasted that for
the year 1999 20% of Internet households in Canada would make a purchase
on-line and that total purchases would be valued at $500 million.
Statistics Canada's most recent report on Internet shopping (1999 data)
reports that 25% of Internet households reported making a purchase on-line
with a total overall value of $417 million. In this case the forecast and
actual figures match remarkably well.
If an exact match is the best case scenario for a forecast, falling
short of expected performance is the worst case. That is when you wished
you had consulted a Magic 8 Ball instead of purchasing a consultant's
report!
In 1999 IDC forecasted that e-commerce in Canada for the year 2000
would be $18.3 billion. 83% of that figure would be business to business
sales and 17% would be business to consumer.
Statistics Canada's latest data however paints a less vibrant picture.
Total e-commerce in Canada for 2000 was $7.2 billion, less than half of
the IDC forecast. (Although give IDC credit for forecasting the B2B, B2C
split accurately.) Now, before you go away with the impression that the
Internet is a flop, keep in mind that e-commerce still grew by 73.4% or $3
billion dollars between 1999 and 2000.
So what is an entrepreneur to do with all these figures? Forecasts can
be accurate, too low or too high. IDC claims to have a 70% accuracy rate
on its forecasts but of course that stills mean they are wrong nearly a
third of the time!
The solution to this research dilemma is to keep the importance of
forecast figures in perspective. Consider for example how you decide what
to wear in the morning. Canadian weather forecasts with all their
satellite and computer models are accurate only 61% of the time when you
do not consider minor temperature variations. Precise weather forecasts
with exact temperature predictions occur only 14.6% of the time in a given
year.
Not surprisingly therefore most of us not only listen to the weather
report but also look out the window at the sky, examine the thermometer in
the backyard, see what other people are wearing, and perhaps even step
outside for a moment to make our own assessment.
Researching a business whether it be on-line or not is no different.
All relevant forecasts provide insight but to understand market conditions
you need to talk to people already in business. You need to look at past
performance, current benchmarks, competitive trends, and market activity.
You need to create a complete picture of your business and the conditions
under which it will operate.
When using Internet predictions we recommend you consult as many
sources as possible. While we used Statistics Canada data above as a
benchmark most entrepreneurs will find that beyond basic performance
figures most Statistics Canada data is not specific enough for their
particular Internet venture. Moreover, the age of the data is sometimes
crippling. 1999 data for Internet shopping is too old for 2001! It is
useful as an historic baseline but you really need more current estimates.
Whenever possible you want to look at as many forecasts as possible.
This will provide you with high and low growth scenarios. It will also
give you an idea on where different analysts actually agree (e.g. every
analyst believes that the number of on-line shoppers will increase over
the next five years. Where they disagree is in how quickly that number
will grow.).
The Canadian Research Centre for Internet Businesses at the GDSourcing
web site has a growing list of Internet sources for Canadian statistics.
You will want to consult the figures from all relevant sites. (https://www.gdsourcing.ca/gdsinternet.htm)
If you have any sort of research budget, I highly recommend you
purchase the eCanada report from eMarketer. It combines original analysis
with aggregated statistics from of industry and government sources. Where
there are conflicting estimates they provide you with all of them as well
as their own insights. Certainly you can compile a similar report yourself
from scratch but the time involved would be enormous. For more information
see the Canadian Research Centre for Internet Businesses (https://www.gdsourcing.ca/gdsinternet.htm)
under latest news and data.
Do not base the success of your business on enthusiastic predictions.
It is one thing to be cutting edge. It is another to be ahead of your
market. Take advantage of the market opportunities that exist today not
the ones that you hope will exist tomorrow.
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SMALL BUSINESS STATS FACTS
Each Business Researcher Newsletter ends with a collection of five
statistics that every entrepreneur should be aware of.
1. What percentage of new Canadian firms started between 1990 and 1998
were micro firms (less than 5 employees)?
Firms with less than five employees accounted for 95% of the 1.3
million new private- and public-sector employers identified from 1990 to
1998.
Scotiabank (July 2001).
2. Are Canadian small business owners optimistic?
A survey conducted by Scotiabank and Goldfarb Consultants finds the
majority of Canadian small business owners are confident about the
future of their business (75 per cent), and are also optimistic about
the future of the country's economy (62 per cent).
Nearly two-fifths (37 per cent) of small business owners surveyed
said they are likely to expand their business within the next year. Of
those who plan to expand, 60 per cent will require additional financing
illustrating the level of optimism in the small business community.
Scotiabank /Goldfarb (July 2001)
3. What is the most common age group for micro business owners?
38% are between the age of 40 and 49 years
28% are between the age of 50 and 59 years old.
Source: Statistics Canada
4. Are micro-businesses an important source of income?
The micro business is the sole source of income for 54% of micro
business owners and the most important source of income for another 26%.
The rest of micro business owners (20%) do not consider their
business to be an important source of income.
Source: Statistics Canada
5. How are micro businesses performing?
Over a four year period 10% of micro business saw their sales more
than double.
On the other hand 43% saw sales grow by 20% or less and 9% had
declining sales.
Source: Statistics Canada
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G D S O U R C I N G - R E S E A R C H & R E T R I E V A L
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